Optimization Model of Cirata Reservoir Management Using Discrete Markov and ARIMA Discharge Forecasting Methods

Abstract Even though the management operation guidelines have been determined, optimal of Citarum Cascade Reservoir has not yet achieved. Optimal cascade reservoirs in an integrated manner is difficult to be carried out due complex operating procedures and high uncertainty hydrological components. So, research on each reservoir considering discharge forecasting model as input (Qin) was proposed. The objective this study optimize Cirata Reservoir’s operational management. Hence all raw water demands are met without any wasted through spillway, indicated by correlation between inflow (historical model) trajectory (guideline actual). In case, methods used were Discrete Markov ARIMA. continuous with five years return period (R5 continuous), ten (R10 3-classes Markov, 5-classes applied for guideline trajectories. Based results, coefficients 0.63 (3-Classes Markov); 0.78 (5-Classes 0.68 (ARIMA (1,0,0)(1,0,1) & ARIMA (0,0,2)(1,0,1)). Optimization simulations 16 scenarios combinations four models trajectories during 2016-2020 period. research, scenario 5-Classes R10 most Reservoir, a coefficient 0.91.